Friday, February 04, 2005

Musings

The CNN story continues to spiral outwards. Much of the mainstream media hasn't caught wind of it- yet. I surmise that will change when one of them decides that it's much more fun to take down one of their own rather than support them with their silence. It's a business, and that's what happened to CBS, previously. But right now, the Bloggers are the ones keeping track of the whole story. At this point, CNN's tried to issue conflicting statements trying to whitewash what Eason Jordan did or didn't say, and they're basically trying to make the whole issue go away before it can get larger. My gut feeling is that their actions to date will only make the matter worse.

I really wish that I knew what the force dispositions of the Iranian and Syrian armies were right now. By that, I mean where they're situated, what their units are compromised of, and what type of depth (offensively and defensively speaking) that they present. I cannot rule out that they will try something- openly or covertly- before the mid-summer elections in Iran (ostensibly for Presidential elections, but that's really a farce). Those elections will probably be....interesting to watch unfold, if only because it's a powderkeg waiting to happen. The Syrians and Iranians will need to do something to change the status quo, one way or the other, before that happens. Diplomatically, they can buy some time by negotiating with the United States, especially over the WMD issue. But that doesn't solve the long term problems, and I don't know if they have any sort of consensus to undertake that type of domestic/foriegn policy interplay. If their force dispositions are defensive in nature, that would probably signify that either A) they can't make a decision on what to do or B) their positions are designed to communicate a willingness to find another solution outside of force of arms. But if their dispositions are offensive in nature, jump-off points for an extended campaign for all intents and purposes, then that would mean that they most likely are discarding the political options, at least until they can use their unsheathed sword to effect a change in the political landscape. If anyone has good info on their military's current situation, I'd be more than willing to listen.

2 Comments:

Blogger Kataqueens said...

How come no one is posting comments?

And no report on the possibility of the French becoming our friends again? I use the word possibility lightly. Those frogs will rot in hell whether or not Condi breaks a deal with them.

6:51 PM  
Blogger Fafhrd1 said...

The French realize that they are stuck between a rock (the US) and a hard place (the newly emerging Russian Bear). They want to play both sides off, just like during the Cold War. It probably won't work, at least not until Chirac is out of office.

And since this is blogger, you have to register in order to post.....I know alot of folks do read the site, but aren't blogger registered. But, if you are, post away!

Fafhrd

7:36 PM  

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