Wednesday, April 13, 2005

Wither China

This is a great post by Wretchard at Belmont (, and while it does do a great job of listing the potential pitfalls for both the US/Taiwanese side and the Chinese side in the event of a Chinese invasion attempt on Taiwan, I think it misses one key point: It focuses far too much on the Chinese acting in a rational fashion. What happens if their economy tanks? What happens if there is a major political fallout in China? How will they react to such events? Taiwan may seem like a shot in the dark that could generate wonders for them, potential pitfalls be damned. Hitler invading Russia was a stupid idea, strategically speaking, but he did it anyways. Al Quaeda attacking NYC and Washington DC was also incredibly dumb, but they did it anyways. And that doesn't even count out innovative strategies that none of us have thought of.

Still, it's a great post, and well worth a read.


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