Saturday, August 06, 2005

Israel, Part 3

Somewhat running paralell to what I've been saying about Israel and Palestine, is Dafydd ab Hugh's commentary at Captain's Quarters- He raises a good point, looking at the situation from another angle about the long-term prospects for Palestine.

If the Palestinians are a soverign nation, and they launch rocket or military offensives against Israel (managing to take down the wall, or going over it), what will the Israeli response be?

Since the Israeli far left is pretty much dead in the water, we'll be seeing the leadership of Sharon and the Likud (and their allies) in power for some time now. That means that we'll probably get a really harsh response from the Israelis, in the event of a Palestinian offensive or attack on Israel. Plus, it will also allow the other Middle Eastern countries- Jordan, Egypt, etc., to voice their concerns with the Palestinians through the Israelis. Probably non-support for the Palestinians (who they've never liked) and conditional "no comments" about Israel (basically, a blank check for Israel to do whatever the hell they want). At the most, they'll probably take a pro-active role in cleaning up Palestine AFTER the Israelis are finished wiping the floor with Hamas and their ilk.

You see, there's a huge difference between running a terror organization, and fighting a shadow war from afar than there is as a nation-state, and running a (largely) conventional war with manpower and resources brought to bear. The PLO found out about that the hard way in 1971-1972 when they failed to overthrow the gov't in Jordan. And again when they set up camp in Lebanon, and the Israelis kicked them out. Both were military campaigns- not police actions. What the terrorists turned soldiers will face, isn't going to be targeted assassinations, but rather, hell from on high.

Lets' say that there's a massive rocket attack on Israel from Palestine in 2012, and it kills a few hundred Israeli civilians. What will the Israeli response be? They'll immediately launch airstrikes against the Palestinian areas which launched those missiles- and has anyone ever seen what multiple hellfire missiles can do to a city block? That's just the opening phase of the war. Then the Israelis would take out the entire Palestinian communication and transportation lines, and then send in the IDF. That's a grand total of 6 hours into fighting.

So if the Palestinians are smart, which I don't think they are, they'll build an actual country. If they're stupid, they'll find out that their short-term gains will lead to long-term headaches for them.


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